A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
